Mathematical modelling of NTD to support control and elimination

The aim of the 2020 goals modelling project within the NTD Modelling Consortium is to develop robust, validated analyses of transmission dynamic models of 9 of the 10 diseases in the London Declaration. Leprosy and visceral leishmaniasis (VL) are diseases controlled by intensified disease management (IDM), which means faster and more complete diagnosis and treatment.

The diagnostics for both of these diseases are relatively poor, so a focus of the research is to identify strategies that can maximise early diagnosis and treatment. VL is vector borne, which gives an alternative approach to transmission intervention.

For leprosy, we have been focusing on using current diagnosis of cases to estimate the numbers currently undiagnosed.

For VL, we have been focusing on how to compartmentalise the natural history of infection, for which much detail is unknown. Both approaches have been part of a recent model comparison exercise, to assess the likelihood of control and elimination of these diseases by 2020.